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Listed under:  Mathematics  >  Statistics and probability  >  Probability  >  Expected frequency
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Counter-intuitive probability

This lesson is designed to demonstrate the ways in which random chance can be counter-intuitive. Students will explore how assumptions made in probability can be risky and investigate how to perform precise calculations to answer probability questions. The lesson is outlined in detail including NSW curriculum links, learning ...

Downloadable

Assessment task: Non-transitive dice

This assessment includes a number of questions to enable students to demonstrate their understanding and learning in probability. Students will be asked to explore the outcomes of a set of non-transitive dice using probability tree diagrams, and discover their unique features. The assessment task is outlined in detail including ...

Downloadable

Lucky lottery

In this lesson, students play a simple lottery game, analyse their odds of winning and how this influences the decisions they made. Students determine the differences between experimental and mathematical probability, conduct a simulation modelling an event and critically evaluate the odds of winning the lottery. The lesson ...

Downloadable

Assessment task: Chuck-a-Luck

This assessment includes a number of questions to enable students to demonstrate their understanding and learning in probability. Students will be asked to investigate an old gambling game known as Chuck-a-Luck. They will calculate the probabilities of each betting option and their expected values. The assessment task is ...

Downloadable

Back to the books

In this lesson, students will explore how bookmakers set odds, and how these odds are carefully determined in order to guarantee the bookmaker the best chance of making a profit. Students learn how to convert between odds and probabilities and calculate the expected profit or loss based on odds. The lesson is outlined in ...

Online

Conduct chance experiments: Year 4 – planning tool

This planning resource for Year 4 is for the topic of Conduct chance experiments. Students conduct repeated chance experiments. Students carry out an experiment multiple times, record the results, and identify and describe any variation in these results.

Downloadable

Loot boxes

In this lesson, students will create their own video game concept, complete with a loot box system. They will then calculate the probability of obtaining all unique items to form a complete set, considering the challenges this random system entails and how the gambling system inherent could lead to unexpected losses. The ...

Video

Catalyst: Probability and the gambler's fallacy

Mathematician Lily Serna visits Luna Park to explain a great probability pitfall. She shares a century-old tale from Monte Carlo casino, and then she puts its lesson to the test. If you flip a coin and it lands on heads three times in a row, what result would you predict for the next flip? Find out why intuition might land ...

Video

What Are the Chances?

Do you know what chance is? It's the probability or the likelihood of something happening. Watch this video as Grace explains the probability of picking a red marble out of a bowl. What's the probability of picking a green marble?

Video

Comparing chance

A simple interactive simulation in which students compare probabilities.

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Thumb wrestling tournament

In this introductory activity students use a simple thumb-wrestling tournament to analyse a series of matches in which there can only be one victor. Students work in small groups to explore different ways of mapping out the events of a tournament, introducing the concept of constructing sample spaces and tree diagrams as ...

Interactive

The foul food maker: go figure

This tutorial is suitable for use with a screen reader. It explains how the use of simple words can describe the likelihood of everyday events. How likely is an event: certain, likely, equal chance, unlikely or certainly not? Answer some questions using these words and then build your own examples. Learn how to describe ...